Saturday, November 6, 2010

BHP POTASH TAKEOVER

I haven't weighed in on this major issue because I really don't know that much about it.  I just don't have the knowledge to give a solid opinion, but having said that, a lack of knowledge hasn't ever stopped me from being critical on other subjects.

First of all, if the value is $146 a share and the offer is $130, then the answer is simple.

I am wondering why this decision is not solely Saskatchewan's.  Why is the federal government involved and Jay Boyd raising a very valid question as we were discussing this on the way to Nipawin last night:  what if the potash was located in Quebec?  How much would the federal government be involved?  You'll never get an honest answer, of course, but we all know that if Quebec said no, the issue would be put to bed and the province wouldn't go through the ringer for a week like Saskatchewan did.

To me, this is a valuable resource that generates revenue for Saskatchewan and it cannot be sold.  Sure, a one time payment would be tremendous, but that's all it is.  One payment.  If someone offered you a million dollars today, or a chance to make ten million dollars over five years, what would you take?  I am probably over-simplifying it; but this is how I see it.

Or, what if someone knocked on your door and offered you twice what your house is worth.  Would you sell?  Of course you would because you could then move into a nicer home based on the profit you'd make from the sale.  But, if potash is sold, it's gone.  What are you going to invest in if you sell it?

In short, potash should not be sold under any circumstance.  We've seen private businesses take over natural resources before and promises are almost always broken.  I'm in favor of selling a piece, but Saskatchewan has to maintain majority control.

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